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Halifax May 23 House Price Index

ended 06. June 2023

Tomorrow morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its latest House Price Index. Last week, the Nationwide said prices in the year to May dropped by 3.4%, the biggest decline since July 2009, and by 0.1% in May itself. It also warned that more rises in mortgage interest rates could put downward pressure on the housing market. Against this backdrop a few Qs:

  • What's your take on the property market right now? Has the nascent revival in demand we saw in the Spring dropped off over the past fortnight as lenders have repriced mortgage rates upwards?
  • How was the UK residential property market in May in your experience? Active, quiet, so-so?
  • What do you expect to happen to property prices during the second half of 2023?
  • Even if the base rate rises again, will prices fall that much given the lack of supply and stock?
  • What are you expecting to see in this month's MPC rate decision? And how could that impact the property market?

Any other thoughts, whizz them across. 

2 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Chris Barry
Director at Thomas Legal
We had a record May in terms of the number of new enquiries and the value of new instructions. Estate agents have the highest stock levels in years and clients who have mortgage offers, but haven't found a property yet, are making offers before the product they have secured expires. House prices have risen circa 30% over the past four years so I don't see a small pullback in value affecting buyer behaviour that much. However, it's likely June and July activity could decline as the number of new buyers coming to the market reduces following the latest spate of mortgage rate increases.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
We've found the mortgage market in May and early June to be surprisingly buoyant, but my concern is what will happen in the second half of 2023. It's almost inevitable that house prices will continue to fall, with the pace of drops accelerating markedly over the coming months. Swap and mortgage rates are surging, and property supply is rising, whilst buyer demand is waning, at least at these prices. With another base rate hike expected later this month, my best guess is a 10% fall in property prices this year with the same again next.