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Halifax July 2023 House Price Index

ended 06. August 2023

Tomorrow (Monday) morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its July house price index. Last week, the Nationwide said annual house price growth edged down to -3.8% in July, the lowest outturn since July 2009. Please answer any or all of the Qs below if you'd like the chance to appear in the national, local and trade media tomorrow.

  • In its July HPI, the Nationwide said that “a relatively soft landing is still achievable” — do you agree with that, or are they being overly-optimistic?
  • What do you think will happen to house prices during the rest of 2023, and why?
  • What are the key factors that will determine the fate of the property market over the next 12 months, e.g. jobs market, inflation, the base rate?
  • How was July in your experience? Was demand for residential property subdued or OK in relative terms?
  • How is the property market faring in your town/city/region?

Any other thoughts, send them across. Deadline is midnight tonight.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
July certainly saw a slowdown in house sales, despite more properties coming to the market. High mortgage rates and talk of falling house prices to come are resulting in many buyers waiting for better conditions. As more would-be sellers languish on the market with no interest from potential buyers, they will have to reduce their asking prices to attract offers. So house prices will drop over the coming months. However, it will be a more gradual correction of 5%-10% rather than the more extreme crashes that have been suggested by some.
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Elliott Culley
Director at Switch Mortgage Finance
Houses prices will almost certainly drop some more if interest rates remain high. When mortgage rates began with a 4, there were still first-time buyers looking to purchase their first property. Although house prices did reduce at this time, it was at a lower percentage. Right now the market has cooled with the majority of first-time buyers wanting to wait and see what happens as they find the current repayments simply too expensive.
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Premium
John Choong
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Investing Reviews
House prices are likely to continue falling in the near future as the recent spikes in mortgage rates have not yet had a full impact on the market due to many people being protected by ultra-low fixed rates. Predicting how far prices will fall is more of an art than it is a science, and last year's doom and gloom predictions of a housing market crash are only a testament to that. Therefore, a 'soft landing' is still entirely possible. The unemployment rate remains at historical lows, while real wages continue to keep up with inflation, which should give household incomes a much-needed boost. As such, the outlook for the housing market will be heavily dependent on three main factors: the unemployment rate, real wage growth and how quickly inflation falls, which affects mortgage rates. While there's no doubt that the market is in for a volatile time, it's premature to call an outright property market crash, especially given the surprising resilience of the British economy to date.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
How the economy performs over the next 12 months will be the determining factor in how far house prices fall. Nationwide's prediction of a soft landing last week is wildly optimistic in my view, simply because a sharp recession in 2024 seems the likeliest outcome. An ever greater percentage of people's income is being taken by banks, utility companies, supermarkets, landlords and HMRC. Other businesses are going to suffer as a result, especially any companies dependent on discretionary spending, which is half the high street. Redundancies will lead to more forced home sales, pushing down prices. I believe we'll see monthly house price falls of 1% or more within six months, with a peak-to-trough decline of 20% in nominal terms by 2025, and over 30% adjusted for inflation.