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Halifax house price index March 23

ended 06. April 2023

On Thursday morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its March house price index. The Nationwide HPI reported house prices were down 3.1% year-on-year in March – the largest annual decline since July 2009 - and fell 0.8% last month. Against this bearish backdrop, a handful of Qs. Answer any or all…

  • Do you think house prices are close to, or at, the bottom, or that they have (a lot) further to fall — and why?
  • Did any sub-sectors of the market prove especially active in March, e.g. FTBs, (portfolio) landlords, downsizers, upsizers?
  • What, for you, will be the key drivers of house prices in 2023? Mortgage rates, inflation, the jobs market, consumer confidence, the ongoing lack of supply, etc…?
  • Some estate agents have reported that the balance of power is slowly shifting back towards the seller - do you agree?
  • Any other interesting trends you're seeing in the property market that perhaps haven't been picked up by the media?

8 responses from the Newspage community

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Jamie Minors
Managing Director at Minors & Brady LTD
UK house prices are still going through a period of correction, which means unrealistic figures that were exacerbated by a poor supply of stock are now re-aligning with demand. As mortgage rates have been steadily reducing and consumer confidence has returned after the disastrous Kwasi/Truss administration, we are seeing strong levels of demand matching good levels of supply. Unemployment is still incredibly low, so as long as mortgage rates don't suddenly rise and people still have their jobs, buyers will continue to purchase, resulting in prices holding without further big reductions and a rally upwards in 2024. One cultural trend that's not been heavily discussed is the dangerous power of social media. We are all comparing our property to that of a stranger online, which is providing a need to 'better our living standards' sooner. We are certainly seeing people move more frequently in comparative terms to our elder generations.
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Chris Barry
Director at Thomas Legal
House prices should remain fairly steady throughout 2023. Though demand levels dropped following the mini-Budget, the latest base rate rise is widely accepted as being one of the last for a while, which has increased confidence. Recently, many buyers have come back to the market, something evidenced by the recent increase in mortgage approvals. We can see demand continuing to increase as confidence and stability grows, which may see supply and demand meet in the middle sometime this year, creating the perfect housing market. The market that has pushed on quickly this year is the new build sector. We think this is due to a short freeze in building projects during the economic uncertainty in October but we are now seeing a sharp rise in new build properties coming to market and a rise in demand from a broad range of clients. We are also seeing developers offering large incentives to buyers. Developers want to sell and there are still people who want, and are able, to buy.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
London homes are taking an age to sell. It's currently taking a whopping 44+ days to shift property in the nation's capital, where prices have been higher than Snoop Dogg on his herbals. It seems sellers in central London are in no hurry to sell, holding out for offers so high they could make Elon Musk's bank account look like pocket change. This has made property listing take longer to sell in London. But wait, it's not all doom and gloom in the housing market. It's more balanced than a tightrope walker on a windy day. The supply of properties is recovering in Q2, and buyers and sellers are finally seeing eye-to-eye on pricing. This means that deals are being agreed upon at a faster rate than a Black Friday sale. So, if you're in the market for a London pad, strap on your seatbelt and get ready for a wild ride over the next quarter.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
I don't see any other outcome than a steep decline in house prices this year and well into next. Mortgage approvals are down over 40% in the last few months, inflation continues to erode living standards, and interest rates are still on their upward trajectory. Over the next six months, I believe we'll see very sharp falls in house prices of 1%-2% per cent a month. The trigger will be the traditional springtime rush to list property for sale. Demand simply won't match it, as prices are far too high given where mortgage rates are.
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Joe Stallard
Director and Advisor at House and Holiday Home Mortgages
In some ways, nothing has changed when it comes to the housing market. There have always been fluctuations and we advise our clients to study their local area carefully. It's true that house prices are down nationally, but this varies from region to region, so keeping a watching brief on what’s happening where you’re looking to buy is the wise thing to do. Surprisingly, our business levels have remained strong. People are still searching for the right property, no matter what. Right now, most families are exploring ways to reduce their outgoings overall. And as they fall off fixed rates, they’re finding higher rates are the norm. Having said that, the shock factor has largely been avoided because information about rate rises has been widely available all along.
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Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
Based on what we've seen so far in 2023, the Scottish market could rightly proclaim that "rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated". Although not without its challenges, unexpected resilience is evident, with prices generally holding steady. As always, the supply versus demand battle largely dictates market conditions and the eagerness of agents to acquire new stock indicates that an imbalance undoubtedly still exists. First-time buyers remain the most active and with many lenders reducing rates in recent weeks at all levels of loan to value, affordability and borrowing power for many is trending positively. It is noteworthy that for buy-to-let, given increasing government intervention in the sector and reduced cashflow, there are unquestionably more landlords selling up all or part of their portfolios. Beyond anecdotal conversations, a sudden rise in listings via specialist estate agents selling tenanted properties is evidence of this ongoing landlord exodus.
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Adam Smith
Founder at Alfa Mortgages
The outlook for house prices in 2023 will be heavily influenced by consumer confidence, which in turn will be shaped by a complex interplay of factors including inflation and uncertainty surrounding interest rates. A decline in consumer confidence could lead to a sharper decrease in the value of UK bricks and mortar, but the extent of this impact remains uncertain and is the million-dollar question on everyone's mind. There are so many variables at play it's hard to know where the UK property market is going next.
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Austyn Johnson
Founder at Mortgages For Actors
In 2023, I predict that lending will fall, causing house prices to drop a little and this will cause mortgage lenders to offer as low a rate as they can to try and keep the business coming in. If the market slows enough, the government will need to put in a support measure, such as a stamp duty holiday. As fewer buyers are looking to offer well over the asking price, prices will drop to keep them buying. It's been a sellers' market for a long time and now buyers are also going to be finding it difficult to reach the loan they would like. Again, prices may need to drop to keep them being sold.