Global equities and recession fears

At Wiltshire Wealth we take the view that markets are broadly efficient and therefore 'it's all in the price'. Evidence suggests it's more or less impossible to 'time the market' or predict what global equities will do in the short term. Over the medium to long term, however, we expect returns on global equities to outpace inflation and lower-risk investments. This view is supported by the overwhelming majority of academic studies, contrary to the slick (and often highly seductive) marketing material churned out by the active fund management industry.

Don't necessarily equate recession with poor global equity performance. Firstly, suppose we do suffer a global slowdown. In that case, it's unlikely that ALL economies will enter and exit recession simultaneously; therefore, good strategic and tactical fund management should be able to navigate through these waters. Secondly, markets generally price recession before it becomes a reality. The point at which we enter a technical recession is likely to be accompanied by fiscal and monetary policy stimulus - which generally leads to a market rally.