GDP July 2025

August was our best month since May 2024. Two clear trends stand out: business clients emigrating from the UK, with Dubai, Italy, and Portugal being particularly popular destination,s and those remaining who have concluded that however challenging conditions are now, they'll worsen after the November 26th budget. Consequently, they're accelerating activity to complete as much as possible beforehand. Business confidence has plummeted, with a prevailing sentiment that while the economy appears mismanaged under Starmer and Reeves, any potential replacements would likely prove even worse. Tomorrow's July GDP figures will provide crucial insight as the first official snapshot of summer economic performance.

The UK’s holiday hunger is recession-proof. The economy has had a rocky road with Labour since it came to power. Yet, our holiday bookings this past summer show that, no matter what happens in the economy, holidays remain firmly number one as the UK consumer’s favourite purchase.

Consumers are spending more on holidays, with the average booking value per holiday climbing 10% (Jan- 11 Sept YoY) - from £4098 to £4503. Both long-haul and cruise sales have each rocketed by 20%.

In August we paid out a record amount of commission to our network of travel consultants and the next quarter looks strong.

We’re seeing a nation of consumers increasingly willing to leverage our interest-free Direct Debit scheme, spreading costs monthly, so that no matter what Rachel Reeves throws at them, they don’t miss out on their slice of paradise.

The second-homes coastal market has stalled like a harbour at low tide, sunk by a triple tide of double council taxes, increased stamp duty, and the end of FHL relief; all against a backdrop of economic gloom. Only a radical reset of housing policy will float growth back into the wider economy.

As autumn rolls in, the economy is in hibernation. The problem is that it has felt like this for years. There is a massive productivity issue in the UK and businesses that want to grow can't as they are stifled by sky high national insurance and corporate taxes. No wonder life sciences and tech start ups are flocking to the US and avoiding this bamboozling stagnant economy, asleep at the wheel.

The economy right now is extremely fragile. Headline GDP growth is weak, but the bigger story is what lies beneath: a very high national debt burden, spiralling interest costs, and a tax regime that is starting to choke activity rather than encourage it. Rising NI, capital gains tax, and stamp duty are discouraging businesses from expanding, homeowners from moving, and entrepreneurs from investing. In practice, people are deferring decisions rather than taking risks — which feeds the sense of stagnation. Confidence in government economic management is low. The public hears that three-quarters of new government borrowing is going straight into servicing existing debt — the equivalent of paying one credit card with another. They sense the “debt doom loop” is not an abstract risk but something that could affect jobs, mortgages, and pensions.