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Economy contracts more than thought in Q3

ended 22. December 2022

The UK economy contracted by more than first thought in the third quarter (July to Sept), with gross domestic product (GDP) falling by a revised 0.3% against the 0.2% decline initially estimated, the Office for National Statistics said. This means we are almost certainly now in recession. Key points below. Any thoughts, send them across ASAP.

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, downwardly revised from a first estimate fall of 0.2%.
  • The level of real GDP in Quarter 3 2022 is now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was pre-coronavirus at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below. 

2 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
A further downward revision was no surprise, given the lack of confidence amongst consumers and businesses alike. The worry for the government will be how they make this recession shorter and shallower than most economists expect. Our European and transatlantic allies are all expected to have short recessions. A double whammy of Brexit and government paralysis will dictate the pace we rise from the ashes. The decline in GDP in the fourth quarter will be even sharper than what we’ve just experienced.
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Editor
Wes Wilkes
CEO at IronMarket Wealth
The velocity with which output is falling is frightening and we are almost certainly already in recession. High inflation, higher mortgage rates, poor supply dynamics, a tight labour market and geo-economic pressures have contributed to this and will take time to rectify. We may even see this third quarter number fall sharper still in the coming months.