"Liberation Day has the potential to create significant uncertainty for global trade — and equally significant uncertainty in markets"

This week’s outcome rests on Trump’s unpredictability, a trait markets have grudgingly adapted to since January. His term has already delivered massive volatility including a 10.1% S&P 500 drop and a 62% VIX rise. The UK’s flagship FTSE 100 index is particularly vulnerable this week. It’s already shed 4.2% since mid-March and could fall another 10% if tariffs hit, though UK insulation might limit losses if Trump spares Britain. The Pound, buoyed by UK favour hopes, could hit $1.30 if Trump proves friendly, or drop to $1.25 if trade fears grow. “Liberation Day” on the 2nd of April, hyped as a tariff “Super Bowl,” could top March’s volatility if Trump surprises, or ease if he backtracks. Trump’s Liberation Day looks set to shape the markets for months.

The White House has become the epicentre of global market chaos this year as President Trump barrels through his second term, tearing up the economic rulebook and leaving the rest of us scrambling to keep up. Never has it felt more appropriate to defer to Dickens when trying to surmise the turmoil experienced over the last two months, as it has truly been both the best of times and the worst of times for those exposed to financial markets. In just over 50 days, Trump’s second term has delivered more policy shifts, trade escalations, and geopolitical tensions than most full presidential terms, making it exceedingly difficult to manage risk within a portfolio. For Britain, this tariff battle could be the start of a Brexit dividend. With both the US and EU engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war, the UK could position itself as a neutral trade partner, leveraging its free trade agreements to fill supply chain gaps and present itself as a more stable intermediary.

The only thing to expect this week is volatility. President Trump is rewriting the rule book and so all bets are off. Having a diversified investment portfolio can help soften the drama for investors, but it's pretty raw for business owners that get caught up in a trade war.