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Close vote could see recent rates hikes reversed?

ended 05. February 2026

At its meeting ending on 4 February 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5–4 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Four members voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.5%. The Bank of England said that though inflation is above the 2% target currently, it is expected to fall back to around the target from April, owing to developments in energy prices including from Budget 2025. Was this vote narrower than expected and what could it mean for the Pound and swap rates? Is a Spring rate cut on the cards if inflation is back around the target from April? Thoughts ASAP please. Any other thoughts on the minutes, send them across.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Chris Barry
Director at Thomas Legal
The MPC vote was much closer than many anticipated. With inflation both high and rising, voting for a cut is progressive and proactive. This does hint that when inflation data starts to show signs of decline, we could quite easily see another rate cut and timing could be perfect if this takes place in the usually busy spring market
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Jack Tutton
Director at SJ Mortgages
The vote to hold the Base Rate today is a lot closer than many experts and the financial markets may have expected. Inflation is still above the Bank's target of 2% so a strong vote to hold the Base Rate was widely predicted, which could be influencing the markets and explain why we have seen increases in mortgage rates recently. The fact that the vote was so close, it will prompt the markets into thinking that a further cut to the Base Rate is coming sooner than thought. In turn, we could start to see mortgage rates falling again in the coming weeks.
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Katy Eatenton
Mortgage & Protection Specialist at Eatenton Finance
This close vote, perhaps closer than many were expecting after the rise in inflation, could see a reversal of this week's mortgage rate increases. The Bank of England appears confident that inflation will be back around target from April and that bodes well for a cut in the Spring, which will help borrowers around the country.
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Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
The close split is a clear warning for borrowers banking on continuous cuts. A 5 - 4 vote is tight by MPC standards and shows how fragile the outlook remains. Inflation may drift back towards 2% on forecasts, but it has been stubborn, and it would not take much - from energy prices to fiscal shifts - to push it off course. We already have clients who held off in early January when rates were falling, expecting further reductions. Some are probably now going to regret that decision. Rates have edged back up and those borrowers are scrambling to secure deals at higher levels than were available weeks ago. By the time a decision is forced, the best-priced deals may already be gone. A further wait-and-see approach ahead of the next MPC meeting could prove costly. Not everyone will want to roll the dice on that.
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Shaun Sturgess
Director at Sturgess Mortgage Solutions
A closer than expected vote and dovish minutes, with policymakers seemingly confident that inflation will be back to target soon, is exactly what the doctor ordered for borrowers. Lenders have been edgy over the past week or so but we could now see swap rates, which determine the pricing of fixed rate mortgages, start to edge down again.
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
The era of hikes is over; the era of timing the first cut has begun. Today’s 5–4 vote was significantly narrower than expected, marking a "dovish hold" that signals the Bank of England is on the brink of a pivot. While a hold at 3.75% was the consensus, the razor-thin majority suggests a regime shift is imminent. For the Pound, this narrow split creates downward pressure as the "higher for longer" narrative fades. Swap rates are likely to fall as markets aggressively price in earlier easing, potentially lowering fixed-rate mortgage costs ahead of the official move. A Spring base rate cut is now firmly on the cards. By highlighting April’s inflation target return, the BoE has set a clear "data trigger." If April data confirms this cooling, a May cut is the base case, though March remains a "live" possibility. The minutes reveal a divided Committee: four members believe policy is already too restrictive, while the majority remains wary of sticky service inflation.
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Babek Ismayil
CEO at homebuying platform OneDome
A hold from the Bank of England was expected but the closeness of the vote and the Bank's apparent confidence that inflation will be back around target in a couple of months bodes well for borrowers. It will be interesting to see how Swap markets react to this announcement, but there is every chance they may edge down, which could see mortgage rates follow suit.
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Antonia Medlicott
Founder & MD at Investing Insiders
The closeness of this vote shows that the direction of travel is clear. Savers should act now to ensure they're not repeating the same mistake too many UK savers did last year when they lost billions in purchase power last year by leaving their money in accounts paying below-inflation interest rates. Be prepared to look online for the best rates - the high street is rarely where you'll find them.
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Elliott Culley
Director at Switch Mortgage Finance
It was widely tipped there would be a hold on the Bank of England base rate today and although this was the result it was a surprise to see some members of the Bank of England being bold and voting for a reduction of 0.25%. This could be good news for rates and could see lenders backtracking on recnet increases. The key will be in the next inflation data, if the recent increase was just a blip, rates could start to fall further.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Entrepreneur, Investor and Landlord at The Kushman Group
Be under no illusion, that four members were willing to break ranks and vote for an immediate cut to 3.5% is a profound ideological schism right at the heart of the Bank.

The majority, including the Governor, are clinging to the status quo by their fingernails, paralysed by the fear of a second inflationary spike. But this position has now become untenable. With the Bank’s own forecasts now accepting that inflation will return to target by April, aided by energy price shifts, the justification for keeping the boot on the neck of the economy is quite frankly evaporating.
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Jonathan Alvarez Herrera
Mortgage Consultant at Ayla Mortgages
The Bank of England’s decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% wasn’t a surprise, but the 5–4 vote split was notably narrower than many expected. A margin this tight signals the MPC is increasingly divided, with a growing number of members now ready to begin cutting rates.

This is likely to weigh on the Pound in the short term, as markets may interpret the result as a clear shift towards a more dovish stance. It also increases the chance of swap rates easing, particularly in the shorter to mid-term, as traders price in earlier rate cuts.

With the Bank suggesting inflation should fall back towards target from April, a Spring rate cut is now firmly on the table. If inflation and wage growth data continue to soften, the next move could realistically be a 0.25% reduction as early as May or June.

Recent mortgage rate rises from lenders such as Barclays, HSBC, Santander and Nationwide may prove temporary, and could reverse quickly if swap rates fall back on the back of softer inflation data.