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Big Macro Week

ended 15. September 2025

This week is a big macro week. We have jobs data tomorrow, inflation data Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. What curveballs could businesses and consumers be delivered by Thursday afternoon? What could happen to the Pound, mortgage and savings rates and business and consumer confidence more widely? What's the worst case scenario in your opinion, and the best?

3 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
Rachel Reeves will be praying for some good news which might signal we're turning a corner, which would lead to lower borrowing costs for the government and ulitmiately some breathing space for the Chancellor and the tax payer, But, if it just confirms we're still mid car crash, then we could see borrowing rates rise and the prospect of a bleak autumn budget for us all.
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Editor
Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Volatility. Worst Case inflation spikes above 4%; wages accelerate, and BoE turns hawkish. The Pound comes under renewed pressure, putting further upward pressure on mortgage rates hit 5%. The key risk is that even "as expected" data may disappoint if markets have positioned for a dovish surprise. The narrow August vote shows current BoE divisions. A hawkish shock could trigger sharp rate rises, hammering consumers facing remortgaging from ultra-low rates.
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Premium
David Belle
Founder and Trader at Fink Money
We are likely to see more weakening in the UK labour market tomorrow which would show a tenth straight month of decline in HMRC payrolls.

Additionally, I can see food inflation being higher leading to an elevated CPI.

Sterling is likely to strengthen further due to an expected rate cut in the US while the BoE is hamstrung with sticky inflation leading to interest rates remaining higher for longer.